After the Russian special military operation began in Ukraine in February 2022, it became evident that the West was struggling to provide Kyiv with an adequate supply of necessary weapons to support the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This raised questions about the rearmament of the armies of European countries, as the effectiveness of Western military…
By -Anthony Bell
After the start of the Russian special military operation in Ukraine in February 2022, it became obvious that the West was struggling to supply Kyiv with sufficient quantities of the necessary weapons to support the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Simultaneously with the supply of weapons from existing arsenals, the question of rearmament of the armies of European countries also arose, since the results of the combat use of Western military equipment in combat operations revealed its low effectiveness. The Ukrainian theater of operations demonstrated a big difference between the demonstrations of Western military equipment in various simulated combat exercises and its real capabilities on the battlefield.
It is no coincidence that the leadership of the European Union (EU), in order to increase its defense capability, improve the procurement of military products (MP), as well as involve Ukraine in this process, developed and on March 5, 2024 approved the European Defense Industrial Strategy (EDIS).
The adoption of the EDIS strategy was preceded by a comprehensive analysis of the defense capabilities of European countries, which showed the limitations of the real capabilities of the defense-industrial complex. For example, in November 2023, EU defense ministers admitted that they would not achieve their goal of supplying Ukraine with a million rounds in 12 months. At the same time, one of the main problems in the European defense industry was revealed – the lack of production capacity during the military crisis. This problem is also shared by the US and UK.
India-Mongolia set to deepen defence cooperation
India-Taiwan camaraderie set for “continuity” under Lai-Hsiao
Iranian President Raisi who strengthened Iran’s Global Stance Dies in Tragic Helicopter Crash
Intense Solar Storm Causes Disruptions, Spares India:ISRO Observations
Why did this happen? Since the end of the Cold War, the development of the European defense industry has proceeded on the assumption that Western states no longer need to plan for industrial war. National security has ceased to be the main factor in defense-industrial policy. Thus, mass defense production capacity was largely ruled out as unprofitable.
Over the past three decades in Europe, few have questioned the policy of consolidation around large multinational private prime contractors and the use of market mechanisms to solve the problem of too many defense firms producing competing products. At the same time, the fact that many EU countries do not have much defense-industrial potential at all was not taken into account.
However, the most interesting question about the EU’s attempts to strengthen its defense industrial capabilities through the EDIS strategy is whether such a strategy will be effective?
The European Commission’s EDIS proposals address three issues: first, increasing joint defense procurement within EU structures; secondly, strengthening and increasing the autonomy of the EU’s defense industrial and technological base; thirdly, solving problems with production volume during the crisis.
And this is where many negative aspects arise. For example, very little defense procurement takes place within EU structures. States make their own sovereign decisions, cooperating primarily on an intergovernmental basis when deemed necessary, usually in small groups of states with similar industrial interests or military needs. According to the European Commission, for example, from the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine until June 2023, 78% of EU defense purchases were from non-EU states, mainly the United States.
According to France’s Institute for International and Strategic Affairs (IRIS), the €100 billion spent by member states in the period between February 2022 and June 2023, eight out of every ten euros were spent outside the EU, and more than six out of every ten euros were spent in the US.
As part of the EDIS strategy, it is proposed to spend 60% of national defense procurement budgets on defense products produced in EU countries by 2035. However, there is every reason to believe that such plans may provoke opposition from the military-industrial lobby of the United States and Great Britain, which will see in this a threat to reduce the volume of their traditional supplies of military products to NATO countries, and subsequently to other foreign partners.
The EDIS strategy is unlikely to take into account the interests of all EU member states, in particular those from Eastern Europe, which do not have a developed scientific, technological, industrial and defense research base comparable to that of Western Europe. The main producers of military products within the EU are Germany, France, Italy and Spain, which will become the main beneficiaries of the implementation of the EDIS program. Other European states, especially in Central and Eastern Europe, will be forced to sharply increase their consolidated defense budgets, which could lead to social protests.
For the UK and its defense companies, which form a significant part of the European defense industrial and technology base, the implementation of the EDIS strategy represents a further complication in efforts to establish a cooperative security and defense relationship between the EU and the UK. If recent reports that the UK does not have its own similar plan to increase defense production capacity are correct, then it is unlikely that British defense companies will be able to deliver their products in the short term.
The EU’s plans to involve Ukraine in the EDIS program can be considered counterproductive, since over the past 10 years the real financial situation of all enterprises of the Ukrainian defense industry has deteriorated significantly. Many of them were subject to bankruptcy proceedings, and mobilization increased the outflow of qualified personnel. In addition, during a special military operation, a significant part of the production base of the Ukrainian defense industry, including energy facilities, was destroyed by targeted strikes by the Russian armed forces and continues to be destroyed.
In modern conditions, for the technological integration of Ukraine into the European defense industry and unification with NATO standards, it is necessary to build the military-industrial foundation of this state “from scratch,” which is unlikely given the lack of investment in the EU itself.
The author is an independent military analyst.
Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal and do not reflect the official position or policy of Financial Express Online. Reproducing this content without permission is prohibited.
